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Options-Implied Probability
What the Deribit BTC and ETH options market implies about the probability of finishing above round price levels at the next few expiries — the same math a threshold-contract market (Kalshi, Polymarket) prices directly. Free, updated roughly every 10 minutes.
How to read this: Compare probability_above with a threshold contract's YES price on the same strike and time (a $0.62 YES is a 62% market price). P(between K1 and K2) = P(above K1) − P(above K2).
BTC Bitcoin
Expiry 2026-10-06 08:00 UTC (7.2h out)Forward $85,805.15
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 61.4% |
| $81,500 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 50.2% |
| $83,000 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 37.3% |
| $84,000 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 32.0% |
| $85,000 | 97.2% | 2.8% | 19.7% |
| $86,000 | 27.7% | 72.3% | 20.1% |
| $86,500 | 7.5% | 92.5% | 25.3% |
| $87,500 | 1.5% | 98.6% | 36.3% |
| $88,500 | 0.3% | 99.7% | 40.6% |
| $90,000 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 46.3% |
| $94,500 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50.7% |
As of 2026-10-06T00:49:09.022Z
Expiry 2026-10-07 08:00 UTC (31.2h out)Forward $85,821.31
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,000 | 99.9% | 0.1% | 61.0% |
| $81,500 | 99.3% | 0.7% | 40.7% |
| $83,000 | 98.6% | 1.5% | 31.5% |
| $84,000 | 92.9% | 7.1% | 27.2% |
| $85,000 | 73.3% | 26.7% | 25.7% |
| $86,000 | 40.6% | 59.4% | 27.2% |
| $86,500 | 27.4% | 72.6% | 28.1% |
| $87,500 | 10.6% | 89.4% | 31.1% |
| $88,500 | 3.9% | 96.1% | 34.7% |
| $90,000 | 1.3% | 98.7% | 41.1% |
| $94,500 * | 0.0% | 100.0% | 48.1% |
Expiry 2026-10-08 08:00 UTC (2.3d out)Forward $85,834
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $77,500 | 99.3% | 0.7% | 52.8% |
| $81,500 | 98.2% | 1.8% | 37.3% |
| $83,500 | 89.7% | 10.3% | 30.8% |
| $84,000 | 83.9% | 16.1% | 29.9% |
| $85,000 | 64.7% | 35.3% | 29.4% |
| $86,000 | 43.1% | 56.9% | 30.1% |
| $86,500 | 32.4% | 67.6% | 31.1% |
| $87,500 | 18.4% | 81.6% | 33.2% |
| $88,500 | 9.6% | 90.4% | 35.3% |
| $90,000 | 4.0% | 96.0% | 39.2% |
| $94,500 * | 0.5% | 99.5% | 48.2% |
ETH Ethereum
Expiry 2026-10-06 08:00 UTC (7.2h out)Forward $2,712.94
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,450 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 90.1% |
| $2,600 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 46.7% |
| $2,650 | 99.1% | 0.9% | 34.7% |
| $2,700 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 25.2% |
| $2,750 | 4.3% | 95.7% | 31.8% |
| $2,800 | 0.6% | 99.4% | 50.2% |
| $2,850 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 54.1% |
| $3,000 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 73.6% |
As of 2026-10-06T00:49:09.024Z
Expiry 2026-10-07 08:00 UTC (31.2h out)Forward $2,713.19
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,450 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 69.2% |
| $2,600 | 98.8% | 1.2% | 38.7% |
| $2,650 | 92.9% | 7.1% | 30.9% |
| $2,700 | 60.0% | 40.0% | 28.8% |
| $2,750 | 17.9% | 82.1% | 32.1% |
| $2,800 | 4.4% | 95.6% | 39.6% |
| $2,850 | 2.2% | 97.8% | 48.2% |
| $3,000 | 0.2% | 99.8% | 62.9% |
Expiry 2026-10-08 08:00 UTC (2.3d out)Forward $2,713.43
| Strike | P(above) | P(below) | IV |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,450 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 55.4% |
| $2,600 | 95.0% | 5.0% | 37.9% |
| $2,650 | 82.8% | 17.2% | 34.4% |
| $2,700 | 55.4% | 44.6% | 34.0% |
| $2,750 | 25.1% | 75.0% | 36.0% |
| $2,800 | 11.0% | 89.0% | 39.4% |
| $2,850 | 4.6% | 95.4% | 43.8% |
| $3,000 | 0.6% | 99.4% | 54.1% |
Limitations
- Risk-neutral probability implied by Deribit option marks: the options market's price for the event, including its risk premium. Not a forecast and not a real-world probability.
- Settlement references differ: this is priced on Deribit's USD index and forwards, while prediction markets settle on their own reference (Kalshi's crypto contracts on CF Benchmarks indices, many Polymarket crypto markets on a Binance USDT pair — check each market's rules). Near the strike the basis matters.
- Targets before the nearest listed expiry use that expiry's smile (constant vol). Between expiries, total variance is interpolated in time.
- Strikes outside the listed range use the nearest listed vol (flat wing) and are flagged extrapolated: true.
- Deribit marks are model marks, not trades; illiquid strikes can lag.
Programmatic access
/api/v1/implied-prob/btcPaid x402 route — custom strikes and target time, BTC, JSON, $0.02 USDC/call./api/v1/implied-prob/ethPaid x402 route — custom strikes and target time, ETH, JSON, $0.02 USDC/call./llms.txtPlain-text catalog of every Kronos endpoint, for agents./openapi.jsonOpenAPI 3.0 specification (machine-readable).